Wales v Republic of Ireland: World Cup 2018 qualifier – live!

Hello world!
Well, this might be emotional. In case you’re looking for a vague indicator of what those emotions might be, here’s some footage of Egypt’s Mo Salah when Congo scored the equaliser yesterday that would have denied them a World Cup place:
Salah's reaction after Congo scored the equaliser against Egypt.pic.twitter.com/OmbXnqnjyw
And here’s Egypt’s Mo Salah when he scored the 94th-minute penalty that secured them a World Cup place:
Millions of breaths held as Moh.Salah ushers #Egypt to #WorldCup2018 #Russia #محمد_صلاح #مصر_في_كاس_العالم_٢٠١٨ pic.twitter.com/8vGRwKtNNo
So, that’s what’s at stake. Either of these teams might qualify as group winners tonight (they would need Georgia to do them a favour in Serbia), and thus launch themselves into Egyptesque levels of excitement, while at least one of them will end the evening with their dreams of a place at next summer’s Russia-based banquet over.
If Serbia beat Georgia, this match becomes about the fight for second place, and for an impressive second place. You see, the least impressive of the second-placed sides in the nine Uefa groups will not make it into the play-offs, and at the moment that is a five-way fight.
This table is produced by discarding results against the worst team in each group and pitting the group runners-up against each other using the results of the remaining eight matches and the following criteria:
1 Highest number of points
2 Best goal difference
3 Highest number of goals scored
4 Fair play points
5 Drawing of lots
Of those teams that have already completed their campaigns, Slovakia in England’s Group F have the least impressive record, reading as it does as follows:
Slovakia v top five: P8 W4 D0 L4 F11 A6 GD+5 Pts12
So, to simplify matters slightly, any team that betters that record is guaranteed a play-off spot. Tomorrow’s matches add an extra layer of complexity which for the sake of convenience and also my sanity I will completely ignore (though I don’t think any of those groups is likely to provide a less good runner-up). That leaves just four teams that are of real interest, and handily they play each other this evening. One of those games is this one, and the other is the meeting between Ukraine and Croatia in Kyiv. As it stands, a mini-league of those four teams excluding results against the two groups’ worst sides would look like this:
Wales v top five: P7 W2 D5 L0 F7 A5 GD+2 Pts11
Croatia v top five: P7 W3 D2 L2 F6 A4 GD+2 Pts11
Ukraine v top five: P7 W3 D2 L2 F8 A7 GD+1 Pts11
Ireland v top five: P7 W2 D4 L1 F6 A5 GD+1 Pts10
So all these teams know they will qualify for the play-offs if they win tonight. A draw definitely won’t do for Ireland or for Ukraine, but could be enough for Wales so long as Croatia and Ukraine also draw.
Wales have received 13 yellow cards and one red card in qualifying, Croatia nine yellows and a red, Ireland 17 yellows and no reds, and Ukraine 20 yellows and no reds. But their fair play points would depend on how many of those cards were shown in games against the sixth-placed team in their group, and whether any of the red cards were straight reds earned by a player who had already been booked (which earns a bonus point for being particularly nefarious), and that’s way too complicated for me to work out.
And, in case you’re wondering, suspensions earned in this match would roll into the play-offs, so there are, for example, seven Welshmen one booking away from missing the first leg, etc and so forth.
If I’ve made a terrible mistake or you’ve fallen asleep, I can only apologise.

SOURCE : GUARDIAN SPORTS
posted by CAMPUS94