Odds against a Tiger return in the very near future

It has been just over six months since Tiger Woods'
latest back surgery, and if he has played an 18-hole
round of golf in the past few days, it would be his first
since the Oct. 28 procedure, which was his second
second such procedure in six weeks and third overall in
19 months.
And that one round would make him ready to play
competitive golf at the Players Championship next
week? Or at the Memorial Tournament next month?
Or the U.S. Open at Oakmont, one of the hardest
courses on the planet?

Woods' failure to play golf over the past six months says
something about the toll taken by the Oct. 28 surgery,
details of which Woods has not disclosed. That eight
months have passed since he last played a tournament
ought to be a hint that this was always going to be a
long, tedious recovery process.
If Woods comes back next week or next month at the
U.S. Open, the prevailing wisdom suggests it will be
too soon -- unless Woods can do something that he's
never been able to do: lower expectations and play
without worrying about winning.
Many seem to think that Woods needs to play a
tournament or two before teeing it up in the U.S. Open
or The Open at Royal Troon. As if Woods would be
using any tournaments at this stage to prepare for a
major championship that, frankly, he cannot win right
now.
Whenever he returns, it needs to be with the idea of
building for the future. Clearly part of the process is to
get comfortable again inside the ropes, go through the ups
and downs of playing 72-hole tournaments preceded by
practice rounds and pro-ams. Has Woods even put
together 72 holes over four days yet? Probably not.
That is why the idea of him playing next week seems out
of touch. Sure, Woods could come back and say he's
just trying to get acclimated to playing tournament golf
again, that he has no illusions of contending with the
likes of Jason Day and Jordan Spieth and Rory
McIlroy and that nobody should read much into his
results. Any other player returning from injury would
approach it that way.
"I don't have that luxury,'' Woods said, acknowledging
that whenever he returns, he will be expected to
compete. "And that's all right.''
The good news for Woods is that he is eager to return.
That is a good sign, but not if he starts rushing to
prepare for majors he can't win. Remember how that
played out in 2015?